Equity Analysts & Asset Managers

As an equity analyst or asset manager, you need to allocate your clients’ resources in a way that maximizes returns and minimizes risk. To this end, you should assess housing investments in light of both actual fundamentals and public perception of those investments.

The Housing Tides Index provides a holistic measure of housing fundamentals which facilitates a comprehensive risk and reward analysis.

For example, an analyst managing a portfolio containing equity in major public homebuilder stocks such as D.R. Horton (NYSE:DRI), Lennar (NYSE:LEN), PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM), or NVR (NYSE:NVR) benefits from a deep understanding of the local housing markets that affect these investments. Finding, collecting and cleaning data for each market is burdensome, but with the Housing Tides Index you can quickly see the economic indicators relevant when evaluating homebuilder equity investments. Builder-specific versions of the Housing Tides Index provide information about things such as local employment, housing supply, and mortgage characteristics where each firm operates with market health weighted by community counts in each metro area.  Assessing the health of each homebuilder’s active markets might inform equity price targets and aid interpretation of homebuilder forward-looking statements.

Context for Builder Predictions

Whereas homebuilder projections are often overly optimistic, the Tides housing market forecasts provide our best estimate of future construction permits in each metro area given current fundamentals. Clearly, homebuilder stock prices are affected when companies meet or miss stated objectives. Using the housing permit forecasts jointly with the Housing Tides Index allows you to interpret builder goals in a macroeconomic context and adjust expectations accordingly.

Housing Media Analysis

The Tides Media Analysis provides you with extra voices and perspectives to draw from when making decisions. You should view results from sentiment analysis with the Housing Tides Index in mind to identify the sources and authors whose sentiment is appropriate for current market conditions.

Economic outcomes are the aggregation of the decisions of individuals with limited knowledge obtained through major media channels… don’t underestimate the effects that media coverage has on housing markets & homebuilder equity returns.

Recognizing Accurate Forecasters

We recognize that the flow of housing news is overwhelming. The Forecaster Report Card should help you focus on the industry experts who make reliable, accurate forecasts and give less weight to the projections made by those who don’t. Bottom line: don’t believe everything you read, and when encountering a prediction offered in the media, it might be fruitful to check the forecaster’s track record.

Navigate with Confidence

You need every advantage possible in order to beat the market. We collect the data that you need to make informed decisions in one place, saving you time. The Housing Tides Report offers a suite of components with powerful synergy, empowering you to make your best real estate investments yet.

Curious about our methodology? Have a question about our builder research?

Message Jonathan Scott, our head statistical analyst! You’ll hear back within one business day.