Market Specific Building Permit Forecasts

Single Family Building Permit Forecast Housing Tides Index Multi Family Building Permit Forecast Housing Tides Index

Based upon economic theory and research, we have determined primary economic indicators that affect permit rates for single and multi-family construction. For each of the top 41 markets, those variables are tested to determine which are statistically significant for predicting housing permits in that area.

Rather than simply using each variable as reported five months prior, the models draw from three-month moving averages. It is our hope that this will accurately reflect the circumstances and environment that builders face when they are planning future homes, while also preventing large, unsupported changes in forecasts from month-to-month.

Forecast Variables

Moderate Weather Dummy
Warm Weather Dummy
House Price Index
Housing Market Index
Construction Price Index
Consumer Confidence Index
Unemployment Rate
Total Employment
Rental Vacancy Rate
Case-Shiller
Construction Employment

Preview of Market Specific Analysis

Housing Tides Preview of Market Specific Forecasts and Analysis

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